Natural Gas discoveries in Lebanon

Justifiably, the major gas discoveries in east Mediterranean have spurred enthusiasm across the poor energy countries of the region. According to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) the 122 Tcf estimated total gas reserves of the Levant Basin Province and the total gas reserves of 345 Tcf in East Mediterranean suffice to satisfy the region’s energy demand almost indefinitely. In the meantime, Lebanon understands that if it wants to achieve energy security or prevent others from drilling from disputed areas it needs to catch up with findings and drilling.

Lebanon is late regarding offshore gas exploration.  It was not until last December that the Lebanese government completed its first 2D and 3D seismic study, in the “Phase one” area and proceeded with "Phase two". Thus, the estimation was higher than expected; 2,2 Tcf of natural gas (higher than the reserves of Cyprus and Israel) geologically more mature than that of Israel are waiting to be drilled.

Up until now 45 percent of the Lebanese waters have been covered with seismic studies; and as Gebran Basil, the Lebanese minister of energy, has stated a complete seismic coverage may reveille natural gas reserves as high as 95.5 Tcf. Nowadays, the Lebanese energy imports amount to 15 percent of GDP. If the government is accurate with numbers then the sizable gas discoveries will miniscule energy imports and relieve the country’s dept (150 percent of GDP) to sustainable levels.

Worth mentioning is that in comparison to its neighbors the Lebanese reserves if proven are quite bigger. For instance, Israel which is the country with the biggest proven natural gas reserves has 9.5 Tcf of proven natural gas and estimated total gas reserves around 30 Tcf. Cyprus enters the game with 7 Tcf proven gas reserves and estimated gas reserves 50 to 60 Tcf. Egypt’s proven reserves are 2.2 Tcf and its estimated total amounts to 66 Tcf.

Lebanon is just moving forward with exploring its natural gas wealth and surely precision regarding figures requires more exploration. However, the fact that even though Lebanon has recently initiated its first licensing round, 97 of the biggest multinationals in the energy business expressed interest indicates the existence of rich fields. The National Iranian Drilling Corporation is one of them.  

Thus, Lebanon needs to overcome a lot to achieve regular development and drilling, which if nothing changes is expected no sooner than 2020. A rocky road to political stability and delayed legal and institutional framework may jeopardize this attempt.

Equally important is the dispute about the Israeli-Lebanese marine borders. The marine line drawn by Lebanon overlaps Israeli territory by 850 Km something which brings the Tamar field closer to Lebanon and part of the Leviathan gas field is claimed to belong to the Exclusive Economic Zone of Lebanon. Lebanon has called in the UN to intervene in the dispute but Israel is blocking any kind of solution by demanding all territorial disputes to be included in the dialogue. Moreover, the 2007 Lebanese-Cypriot agreement for the management of their offshore borders is set under the microscope by Lebanon that wants to review the provisions about the Israeli-Lebanese borders. 

One thing is for sure, as much enthusiasm have the gas discoveries spurred in East Mediterranean so much gasoline have they added to the security complex of the region.

by Elpiniki Karakosta